Analysts: Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos Due to Tariffs Signals 'Unhinged Times'

It's been a whirlwind week for U.S. gamers, marked by a rollercoaster of emotions. The excitement kicked off with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and games. However, the joy was short-lived as the community expressed dismay over the console's $450 price tag and the steep $80 price for Mario Kart Tour. The situation took another dramatic turn when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to evaluate the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've covered the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these tariffs on the gaming industry elsewhere. The burning question now is: What will Nintendo do next? With the looming possibility of pre-order prices increasing, gamers are left in suspense.

Typically, to address questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide well-informed insights based on data and trends. I've already reached out to them twice this week. However, this time, the analysts I spoke with were unusually stumped. Their responses were filled with caveats, emphasizing the unprecedented and chaotic nature of the current situation. No one can accurately predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump administration, or any other stakeholders in the coming days or months.

With that in mind, here's what the analysts had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts I spoke with were divided in their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially believed it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after announcing them, but the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He now thinks Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," he said. "I hope I am wrong but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariffs before setting prices. "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense," he added.

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the unpredictability of the situation but also leaned towards price increases. "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he noted. Piscatella believes that Nintendo had some assumptions about the tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than expected. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he said, highlighting the potential for the U.S. to join other regions with higher game prices due to these tariffs.

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will increase due to the tariffs, though he believes software might be less affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he explained. Regarding hardware, Rosier suggests that companies like Nintendo are unlikely to absorb the additional costs, potentially leading to higher retail prices for consumers.

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes that Nintendo will try to maintain the announced price of $449.99 for the Switch 2. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. Van Dreunen notes that Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has restructured its supply chain to mitigate geopolitical risks, and the initial price reflects these considerations. However, he acknowledges that ongoing trade disputes and the unpredictability of tariff decisions could force Nintendo to reassess if the situation worsens.

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo faces a difficult choice. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. Having already announced the launch price, Nintendo is now in a challenging position. Harding-Rolls suggests that the company will hope for a resolution over the next few weeks but acknowledges that all options are on the table. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," he added, noting that a price change could impact the brand and consumer perception at launch.

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He points out that Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets might have been an attempt to nudge consumers towards digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital," he said, adding that the chaotic tariff situation left Nintendo in a "wait and see" mode.

Elliott also paints a grim picture of the broader impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes that the tariffs will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation" with consumers bearing the brunt of the costs. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said, emphasizing the logistical challenges of moving supply chains and the unpredictable nature of future tariffs. "We are living in...there's no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)," Elliott concluded, criticizing the tariffs as harmful to consumers and the economy, and contrary to established trade principles.

Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery

91 Images