Nintendo Cautiously Forecasts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has released what industry analysts are describing as a "conservative" sales forecast for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, amidst ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs. In their latest financial report, Nintendo projected sales of 15 million units for the Switch 2 and 45 million game units for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. The eagerly awaited Switch 2 is set to hit the shelves on June 5.

The company's forecast is based on the assumption that the U.S. tariff rates implemented on April 10 will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, Nintendo acknowledged that any alterations to these tariffs could impact their projections. "We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions," the company stated.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, labeled the 15 million unit forecast as "conservative." In a tweet, Ahmad suggested that Nintendo's cautious approach likely accounts for uncertainties around tariffs, pricing, and production, despite strong pre-order momentum. He further noted that Nintendo might revise its forecast upward if the tariff situation improves. However, he highlighted the current challenges, stating, "However, the main issue right now is knock-on effects that are already in motion and creating a difficult environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs."

It's noteworthy that if the Switch 2 achieves 15 million sales in its first year, it would rank among the most successful console launches ever, surpassing the original Switch's first-year sales of 14.87 million units.

Demand for the Switch 2 appears to be exceptionally high. Following a delay caused by tariffs, pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 opened on April 24, with the console priced at $449.99. The response was overwhelming, as expected. Additionally, Nintendo has cautioned U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store that delivery on the release date is not guaranteed due to the intense demand.

For more detailed information, check out IGN's Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.