Predicted: Switch 2 Poised for Sales Dominance

Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to become the best-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million units by 2028. This makes Nintendo the projected "clear winner" and "console market leader," surpassing both Microsoft and Sony.

This forecast is attributed to the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start over competitors. The report suggests that potential competition from Microsoft and Sony, rumored to be developing their own handheld consoles, won't materialize until 2028 at the earliest. This three-year gap positions the Switch 2 for sustained dominance, with DFC Intelligence predicting only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles to achieve significant success. A hypothetical "PS6" is mentioned as a potential contender due to PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

The Switch's remarkable success, surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales with 46.6 million units sold, further bolsters this prediction. Circana (formerly NPD) data shows the Switch as the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS, despite a recent 3% year-on-year sales decline.

DFC Intelligence's report also paints a positive outlook for the entire video game industry. After a two-year slump, the industry is projected to experience healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 anticipated as a particularly strong year. This resurgence is attributed to new product releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, expected to boost consumer spending. The global gaming audience is projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, fueled by the rising popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. Hardware sales, both PC and console, are also expected to increase.